Skill Vs Luck In Poker
A couple of weeks ago a friend of mine who wasn't a poker player asked me what was kind of a 'poker math' question. It was a common one: 'What percentage of poker is luck and what percentage is skill?'
I'm calling it a poker math question in part because it was a question about poker that also was asking me to produce percentages and quantify an aspect of the game. But there are other more pertinent reasons why the question is really about the math of poker.
Poker – All About Skill. Of these three, poker is definitely the most skillful game. Texas Hold’em, which most people refer to when talking about poker, is pretty much all about skill. Anyone can win in a single cash game or a tournament. However, it’s been proven beyond the shadow of a doubt that skill triumphs over luck in the long run. In an article on the Scientific American website, writer Jennifer Ouellette pens an intriguing look at the “skill versus luck” debate, featuring input from a few of poker’s more notable names.
For one, understanding the role luck plays in the game means knowing the math behind poker — that is, knowing odds and probabilities and how sometimes when you make a good decision you still lose, or how sometimes when you make a bad decision you still win. Secondly, possessing that knowledge and knowing how odds and probabilities and other 'poker math' can (and should) affect decision-making in poker is itself part of what it means to be a skillful player.
Some players come by this knowledge instinctively, seemingly understanding the math of poker without ever having to study it in a conscious fashion. Others learn it by trial and error, and after failing a number of times to fill their straights or flushes a certain number of times finally begin to appreciate how learning poker math is worthwhile to do.
From the game's earliest history, though, everyone who has taken poker at all seriously has come to realize the importance of understanding the game's math component.
The History of Math in Poker
Late 19th Century
Looking back through the history of poker, the game was introduced in America during the early 19th century. The original game used a 20-card deck and involved simply dealing out five-card hands with players subsequently betting on them. In that game, knowing hand rankings and a little something about the chances of making certain hands would obviously serve players well, though the associated math involved wasn't terribly complicated.
Later came the standard 52-card deck as well as the introduction of the draw, meaning players could bet both after the initial deal and then again after discarding and drawing cards to improve their hands. Sometime after that came the introduction of five-card stud then later seven-card stud, new variants on the game that provided new challenges as well as even more betting rounds. Poker was becoming more complicated, and so, too, was the math of poker.
Toward the latter part of the 19th century came the first poker strategy books, with many of them focusing on the math behind poker in addition to explaining the rules and other aspects of the game. The title of Henry T. Winterblossom's book The Game of Draw-Poker, Mathematically Illustrated (1875), one of the first full-length books about poker strategy, gives you an idea of the author's emphasis on math in poker.
Over subsequent decades other strategy writers continued in the same vein as Winterblossom, including in their texts tables full of numbers illustrating the chances of filling different draws. With regard to five-card draw Mike Caro famously shared the math and showed how to apply it at the table in Doyle Brunson's Super/System (1979), to which he also contributed many more tables explaining odds and other math for numerous other variants.
20th/21st Centuries
Texas hold'em is among the games covered in Caro's tables, and as the 20th century drew to a close first fixed-limit hold'em and then no-limit hold'em became the most played poker variant by far, with NLHE tournaments especially popular both online and live.
Along with the 'poker boom' of the mid-2000s came an explosion of poker strategy texts, many aimed at beginner level players and thus usually touching on math-related concepts in poker.
Tournament strategy books like the Harrington on Hold'em series (2003-2005) by Dan Harrington and Bill Robertie popularized certain math-related concepts like 'M' (or the 'M-ratio'), a calculation reflecting how deep or shallow a player's chip stack is as determined by the cost to play each orbit. Later tournament strategy books would routinely include considerations based on ICM or the 'independent chip model' that uses math to calculate the real money equity of a player's chip stack as indicated by a tournament's payout schedule.
There have been several popular 'poker math books' over recent years as well — that is, books which primarily focus on the math of poker.
Among those titles, The Mathematics of Poker (2006) by Bill Chen and Jerrod Ankenman well demonstrates for the importance of math in poker, with the authors introducing a variety of quantitative techniques that apply to poker strategy, including game theory. The Math of Hold'em (2011) by Collin Moshman and Douglas Zare also covers a wide range of Texas hold'em math concepts from odds and probabilities to equity and variance.
Applications of No-Limit Hold'em (2013) by Matthew Janda builds even further on the idea of using ranges (both your own and those of your opponents) in order to help with decision-making and bet sizing. Meanwhile Essential Poker Math (2015) by Alton Hardin is another popular title that focuses on basic fundamentals including odds and probabilties, equity, and expected value.
Math in Poker Today
Of course, today players learn poker strategy by a variety of other means besides reading books, and indeed more often than not will opt for other forms of instruction such as provided by poker forums, coaching sites, videos and live streams, and other sources.
Regardless of the approach, however, poker players seeking to improve their games and strategic know-how necessarily come up against the inescapable truth that understanding the fundamentals of poker math is essential.
Knowing basic probabilities helps inform decisions regarding practically all aspects of poker, from starting hand selection to the narrowing of hand ranges when making a big river decision. Understanding other fundamentals like how to count outs, how to calculate pot odds (and implied odds), how to calculate expected value and the like serves as a necessary foundation on top of which other winning skills can be developed.
Luck vs. Skill in Poker
How did I answer my friend's question? I had to be truthful and say that what he was asking for wasn't quantifiable — that you couldn't really pinpoint what percentage of poker is luck and what percentage is skill.
Knowing that wasn't going to satisfy as an answer, I added how luck can sometimes matter more when it comes to a single hand or a short period of play (say, just one tournament), but that over the long term skill tends to be more important.
Of course, anyone who knows anything about the math of poker already knows that.
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cash game strategytournament strategymathpoker mathhistorybookspoker booksDoyle BrunsonDan HarringtonRelated Players
Doyle BrunsonDan Harrington
If you want to make a profession as a gambler, you should take the time to master the games where the outcome is not heavily reliant on luck. I'm going to give you a run down of what these games are in this article.
The Gambling Involved in Gambling
Gambling is often thought of in a negative light. Visions of lost fortunes, hyper-maniacal egotists and ruined families crowd the forefront of people’s minds. While gambling certainly can have less than ideal outcomes, there are a large number of people who gamble every single day without detriment. In fact, they gamble to their great success. These are the people who don’t leave their fate in the hands of Lady Luck; they put their money on gambling games where skill is a major factor.
So which games fall into which category?
I’ll give you the rundown here, starting with games that involve the most skill and then moving onto the ones that are almost totally governed by chance. It probably goes without saying (or it should) that if you want to make a profession as a gambler, you should take the time to master the games where the outcome is not heavily reliant on luck. Staking your livelihood to mere chance may pan out very short-term, but in the end, everyone’s luck runs out.
1. Poker
For people looking to make a home for themselves in the world of gambling, poker is the Motherland. This complex and exciting game combines a massive amount of skill and strategy, which will always win out over luck in the long-run. An inferior and inexperienced player may win a few hands, or even games, but those who have mastered the game will come out on-top in the long-run. The majority of experts agree that the skill vs. luck ratio of poker is 70/30, meaning that whole there is an undisputable degree of variance, ultimately, those who put in the time will reap the rewards.
2. Sports betting
Here we’re looking at a skill to luck ratio of 60/40. Despite the fact that you quite literally have no control over the outcome of the game, you DO have control over how wisely you place your bet. If you go in blind, without knowing anything about the sport or the team/players, you may get lucky, but over the long-run, you will lose. As with poker, knowledge is absolute power, so if you know your sport and your team and know about how that team has been playing, you will have a huge advantage over someone who is just guessing.
3. Blackjack and similar card games
Skill Vs Luck In Poker Real Money
These sorts of games always have the player at a small, but distinct disadvantage against the casino. The casino’s house edge relies heavily on the rules that the casino applies (example: the option to surrender a hand will give the player a favourable edge). However, there’s a mathematically correct way of playing in any situation, and players are even allowed to use cards that give advice on how to play each hand of their own, relative to the visible dealer card. So, you can blunt the house edge by playing mathematically correct, but a lot still depends on luck. The skill vs. luck ratio for these games comes in at 30/70.
4. Roulette
While this game may boast a long tradition of people purporting to have the perfect system, don’t lend any weight to their claims. These systems are strictly whimsical and they will not guarantee you a single win. Even if you employ the most basic system, (i.e. the Martingale system, in which you simply double your bet until you win), you are still looking down the barrel of some pretty shoddy skill to luck odds of 20/80.
5. Lotto, Bingo and scratch cards
No skill here, folks; your winning or losing these games is almost 100% based on chance. There is only one way to tilt the balance in your favour, and this is by waiting until the jackpot is massive. This is because the big win (i.e. the gain) vs. the actual ticket cost gives you a mathematical advantage. However, your statistics of winning are still painfully slim; I’m talking 10/90 skill vs. luck.
6. Slot Machines
Everyone’s favourite casino game is firmly at the bottom of the barrel for one simple, irrefutable reason: your chances of winning are infinitesimally tiny. (Think a skill vs. luck ratio of 5/95.) Here’s the thing: modern slot machines are computer-programmed, and the percentage of wins is pre-set by the operators, and in the long run, the house always wins. There are only two ways to make a short-term profit: invest a small amount of money and considered it as a ticket for some fun play, but when you are ahead, be sure to take the money and run! Or, play the high-roller slots with the huge jackpots and hope to strike gold. Be aware of the long odds when you choose the second option, and set yourself a limit you can afford to lose over a certain period of time.
To sum it up...
Skill Vs Luck In Poker Tournament
Common sense is the main currency you need to concern yourself about when gambling. You will lose sometimes; that’s the nature of the beast – but if you choose a game you like and have fun playing, it will never completely feel like a loss. Moreover, it’s a good idea to choose a game where you have a larger ratio of skill to luck. This way, you always have the element of control on your side.
Skill Vs Luck In Poker Card Game
For detailed information on all aspects of gambling and a variety of games, here is a website with tips for online gambling that we found informative.